One of my favorite liberals is William Galston, who offers his insights on politics and social issues in The Wall Street Journal. Over the past couple of months he has written about the demographics and underlying economic and social issues driving the Trump phenomenon.
In one article, he notes that much of Trump’s support grows out of what he calls “an angry, disaffected U. S. white working class that, for the first time in decades, has found its voice”. He also notes that xenophobia, nationalism, and bigotry are dominant tones, which tempts many of us to turn away, but he cautions that this would be a mistake because underneath these noises are real problems, many of which are tied to the failure of government to provide a sense of prosperity and economic security.
I agree, and this is the crowd that I have previously identified as the key to any realistic political consensus in America and have suggested that the political party that finds some answers that capture their allegiance can stay in power for several decades.
In another article, Galston reports the results of a recent survey released by the Public Religion Research Institute and the Brookings Institution, which identifies with more precision the sources of Trump’s support. Some highlights: 55% of his supporters are white working class, compared to 35% for the rest of the Republican field; the most likely demographic group to support him is composed of men ages 50-64 with no more than a high school education; this group is the most likely to believe that immigrants are taking jobs away from American workers; 30% believe that immigrants strengthen the country compared to 51% of whites with college degrees; and possibly most striking, 62% believe the country has changed for the worse since the 1950s, only 42% believe that America’s best days are ahead, and 68% believe that hard work and determination are no guarantee of success for most people.
These findings confirm anecdotal evidence that has been pretty obvious for some time now. It reflects the frustrations of mainly white working class men who no longer recognize their country. This is the core of the sentiments to “take our country back!” and “make America great again”. But I submit that before we dismiss or ridicule them and their leader as inarticulate buffoons, we should remember that the last leader who captured this crowd was Ronald Reagan (remember the Reagan Democrats?) and he carried 49 states. I’m not suggesting that Donald Trump is anything close to Ronald Reagan, but what I am suggesting is that there are very real problems here in what represents the backbone of our country in many ways that are not being adequately addressed by any message other than Trump’s demagoguery and we had better wake up.
Well-outlined. I can clearly sense and see the disaffection among the groups who are warming to and supporting Trump. I believe their sentiments about the misdirection of the country are real to them, deeply-felt, and getting more desperate. A candidate who can plug into this, rally us together, and offer sensible solutions will win in the end. While I listen to Trump on the trail, though, I’m finding it so difficult to associate his approaches with “sensible”… YET (we’ll see). That’s just it. I really want those folks to find a candidate to believe in. I’m not, and I don’t think these key voting groups are, expecting a Ronald Reagan to appear with a red cape on the scene. Frankly, I think the frustration level precludes believing in a messianic rescue. But I would like to see more out of Trump, and we all should expect more, if he’s to be our candidate: are there sensible explanations behind the bluster? Is there some logical thought behind those binary answers to complex problems? (e.g., “build a huge wall,” “bomb them all to Hell”) Hope to heaven there are, or conservatives will have to play even more defensive small ball against people who would have us be backward simpletons. Or maybe that’s just me being too intellectually elite. Maybe we do need more fire and vigor, less explanation. Maybe I just want a U.S. president to just get it right for a change and be proud of him and what he’s done. I’m tired of being disappointed.
See also Peggy Noonan’s take on the Trump phenomenon and the message it should/could send to the GOP: http://www.wsj.com/articles/will-the-new-years-tumult-trump-the-old-1451603900