On the first anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine, it’s timely to reflect on exactly where we are in this war and what are our strategic choices. And many commentators more qualified that I have been doing that, some more realistically than others, but here are my thoughts for whatever they are worth:
- The title of this post has become the motto for the Biden administration in terms of how long the U. S. will be supportive of Ukraine in this war. And it is an inspirational battle cry, but obviously must be backed and conditioned by a realistic strategy in order to have any meaning.
- Thanks to the dedication and courage of the Ukrainian people and American support, the war is winnable and that should be the objective. In fact, it is crucial that Russia must lose and lose decisively, because the world is watching, and this war is about the future prospects for freedom, global security, and the preservation of the rule of law.
- The role of the U. S. and its European allies must be sustained and, in fact, the delivery of military assets must be accelerated to meet the needs of Ukraine, particularly in order to successfully take back territory now occupied by Russia. The foot-dragging on this by the administration must stop. As Margaret Thatcher once said to George H. W. Bush, “this is no time to go wobbly”.
- Politically, I worry about the demagoguery of Tucker Carlson and his fellow travelers of the Republican Party’s isolationist and populist nationalism wing and its drag on the foreign policy leadership we need from people who seek national leadership posts like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, particularly if Donald Trump excites his isolationist base on opposition to this war.
- Finally, as Daniel Henninger of The Wall Street Journal so well notes in a recent essay which I recommend, “Ukraine Fatigue is Not an Option”.
- Your thoughts?
War, in particular, has long been a human action which more or less demands allegiance: Either one is with the cause or an enemy to it. The excitement of war, reflective of its dangers, creates an emotional condition that elicits strong feelings and calls to action.
War is necessary at times. As Alexander Hamilton said, “War will not always be left to our election.” His point was that our country (or its genuine interests) will sometimes be attacked, and we must rise in defense.
But since the dawn of the nuclear age, victory has a grimaced face. In Korea, Vietnam, nations in the Middle East and elsewhere the end has not at all looked like the romanticized victories in WWI and WWII.
I am impressed by the fighting spirit of the Ukranian people and its leaders. But I am also troubled by the long history of corruption in that country. I am also suspicious of the Biden family connections to that country that may jaundice our nation’s clear interests in the war underway. I have some sympathy with those complaining of “blank checks” and pressing needs in our country; yet I recall the support of other nations when the United States declared its sovereignty from England and fought a war to win independence.
What are the accountabilities of the many dollars and weapons sent to Ukraine? Who is watching their delivery and use? Do we simply presume that corrupt nation has suddenly become virtuous?
What are the objectives? Is a return of Crimea part of the battle plan? What of Zelensky’s claim that the war stops in Moscow? Does that not strengthen Russia’s resolve?
Where are the discussions of a truce and a peace pact?
I am neither “all in” or stubbornly resistant. I long for a wise and informed discourse that is not driven by the military industrial complex of Eisenhower warned posterity.
Greg well thought and said!
Four major problems — possibly existential to our country’.
1. We, that is, the US, are broke financially.
2. We, that is, the US, are broke from a leadership and trust standpoint
3. There are big boys out there (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and a few others) that would like to take the US down a notch or two and wondering if now is the time to strike.
A final thought from my father, may he rest in peace: A career Army Officer and part of the greatest generation who fought in World War II for our team, he seldom spoke to me about the war — except when toward the end of his life, he once said to me that his greatest concern is when we reach the time in this County when we no longer have leaders who have experienced the horrors of war. We are there now and have been for the past decade or so.
May God be merciful if we don’t wake up and take this country back from the lunatic fringe.
Imagine that China sets up a communist puppet government in Canada and starts pouring in massive amounts of high tech weapons.
Imagine a Che type creating a militia in the southwestern Canadian areas that starts killing peoperty owners and local elected officials. In Ukraine it was actual Nazis.
Imagine that the locals in the southwest Canadian areas ask the US for help and indicate a desire to join the US.
Then add in outlawing English as a legally allowed language for contracts and you have a somewhat comparable situation to the Ukraine that the US Deep State has brought about.
It is an incredible mess and the Russia will never accept defeat. Putin is not the problem, Russia will follow the same course if he dies tomorrow. It will go nuclear as tactical nukes are deployed by Russia. All rail, sea, road and air access will be destroyed. Ukraine will be a wasteland for a generation.
This is basically just another of the endless European wars over language and ethnic groups being mistreated by each other. The Hungarians and Romanians are trying to sit it out.
I think Trump could have brought peace with Russia and created a common front against China if the Deep State had not needed Russia as an enemy to justify their existence. Biden deliberately goaded Russia by holding a press conference telling Ukraine they could join NATO in December 2021.
Elon Musk had the only workable solution, plebiscites across Ukraine on Russian or Ukrainian affiliation. When you look at voting patterns over the last fifteen years a very clear division exists between Russian and EU leaning areas.
As it seems always you are perfectly on the mark Jim. I read a book by Tucker ten years ago before he became a celebrity and the only thing I disagreed with was his isolationist sentiment. He is being consistent. He generally views things broadly but not this.
I was astounded by Tucker Carlson when he inferred that Biden was into this war because the Russians were white Christians. I do fear that if only Ukraine suffers the infrastructure devastation, the Russians will prevail. In WWII the fire bombing of Dresden and other cities changed the hearts and minds of the German people. In North Vietnam an avoidance of heavily populated areas and dams failed to deter the will of the people. War is not a civilized activity and the Russians understand this and I am afraid we don’t. I don’t know the answer but if we allow Russians to send Ukraine back to the stone age with nothing more than inconvenience for the Russian people, we will regret it.
Since Vietnam, the American public hasn’t done very well with “as long as it takes.”
Somewhere along the path, it gets tired or disillusioned or loses interest or begins to think the price isn’t worth it.
We had better have a more strategic plan than that, one that wins or at least meets and completes core objectives or represents a compromise that achieves some semblance of victory.
We’ve spent a year and tons of money. The Ukrainians have suffered incalculable damage. Since the Russians are ruled by tyranny, I suspect it may have considerable staying power.
Pretty dismaying.
I want us to stand up to Putin.
But, again, “as long as it takes” sounds a lot better than it is or is likely to prove to be as a strategic position.
Jim I largely agree with your commentary and largely agree with the comments of others. I served in two wars. Vietnam as an enlisted troop and Iraq as an army contractor. I did learn that defect or victory at any level generally turns on the miscalculations of enemies strengths, weaknesses or responses to your actions or inactions. The miscalculation by Japan of our response to the Pearl Harbor attack cost them the war. Putin has badly miscalculated Ukrainian courage and fighting ability, as.did our own military and intelligence agencies. There lays my great worry. Given their track record, what else have they miscalculated about Russia and/or China? Biden, Austin and Milley do not inspire confidence in that regard.
“Nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary a choice of either humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy or of a collective death wish for the world.” – John F. Kennedy June 1963 Post Cuban Missile Crisis
Gentlemen,
Consider this:
https://www.frontpagemag.com/ukraine-and-our-confused-foreign-policy/
I am probably more hard nosed than the comments I read here. I have a Ukraine flag in front of my house and am inspired by their courage. To me Russia violated the Budapest Agreement of 1993 and the US has a duty to help them. The agreement was signed by the US, the UK, Ukraine and Russia and all parties agreed to respect the borders of Ukraine. If I was Biden I would announce that steps were being taken to admit Ukraine to NATO.