As they say, the people have spoken, and the republic still stands, albeit at least as confused politically as it has ever been. I didn’t like many of the election outcomes, but I continue to be grateful that we have this great privilege, and that the great American experiment carries on. Here are my thoughts.
- First and most obvious: Donald Trump is toxic, and has become a huge liability for the Republican Party. As I write he is about to announce that he will be a candidate for President in 2024, which will be very bad news for his party and the country. I voted for him twice and have previously noted that he had a very productive run in several ways and he has a huge and dedicated populist following, but he chose to destroy his legacy in the events leading to the debacle of January 6, 2021. (see Trump: His Exit and Legacy, February 2021) What he should have done now is to get off the stage, an act of magnanimity that would have been a shocking and welcome surprise.
- The Republican Party finally released its Commitment to America late in the campaign, which was too little and too late, then compounded its ineffectiveness as a campaign tool by failing to produce details on specifics of policy and not spending enough time nationalizing the campaign and explaining exactly what the various policy priorities would do to benefit the country and Americans.
- Republicans recruited far too many low quality candidates across the board and/or supported too many Trump endorsed candidates whose loyalty to him was their only apparent qualification. And most of these candidates lost, probably resulting in the loss of a Senate majority in the very winnable races in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. This process was managed and financed by resources at the disposal of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and it seems reasonable that there be accountability for these results.
- Clearly from the returns across the country, particularly at the state and local level, competence wins, and this was illustrated very well in many of the state governors races where the winning candidates stayed out of the Trump-related debates on 2020 denial grievances and tended to the business at hand.
- The abortion issue became a much bigger one than I predicted and the Republicans generally did a poor job of the messaging on the Roe v. Wade reversal in the Dobbs case. People in both parties and independents wanted to hear in more detail exactly how the candidates in red states would respond to the removal of the national right to abortion on demand, and the response was mostly weak, which fed into Democrat accusations of extremism which in many cases apparently stuck.
- In the end the independent vote that usually provides the numbers that produce mid-term election sweeps was not there this time for the Republicans. Quite simply, the people were of two minds–they overwhelmingly believe that the country is on the wrong track, but they didn’t totally buy in to the Republican response–and the result was a huge missed opportunity.
And that’s my take.
Jim,
I agree that political messages ought to be direct and clear. The muddled message of many of the Republican candidates (and more importantly, that of the party) was not good enough to achieve the win. Fortunately, the house did flip, however marginally and the pace of progressivism is slowed.
Good essay, Jim. Trump continues to slowly destroy the GOP. In a two-party system, both parties need to be broad enough to accommodate moderate voters. The Trump Republicans keep pushing out moderates (RINOs in their parlance). Oftentimes they define RINO as “anyone who fails to pledge fealty to DJT. With Trump once again running (and honestly, do we really need to start the public part of campaigning before the votes are even counted in the last election); the GOP is going to be a circus. That such an incredibly weak candidate as Joe Biden won last time is an indicator of the toxicity of Trump.
Nice job Jim. Personally, I’m glad the Blue Wall mostly held. GOP has a monstrous young voter problem, has to figure out why. Appeals to the good ole days won’t cut it.
tim and Jim,
The GOP has a monstrous young voter problem because they have been indocrtinated, not educated. The left has followed Antonio Gramsci’s strategy for peaceful seizure of power. Gramsci was a founder of the Italian communist party, and his strategy was for the Left to infiltrate and control education, entertainment, and the media. The Left in America has succeeded in this strategy, overwhelmingly. Freedom of speech has become, for the Left, to only say nice things while stabbing Americans in the back.
As far as Trump goes, his speech last night was “presidential” in tone and delivery. I suspect his speech was to pre-empt DeSantis.
You must admit Trump has learned a lot. His proposed agenda items, like term limits for the Congress, are sensible and necessary.
Trump has two uears to campaign. I will vote for him again in our primary. He is a warrior, not brain-damaged like Biden (D) and Fetterman (D), who are devoted to America’s ruin.
As almost always Jim your evaluation is dead on accurate. But I read your book The Texas Pilgrim: 20 years of Reflection and Commentary and I saw I almost nothing I disagreed there either. We have the same mind.
I agree, Jim. However, I did expect abortion to be an issue.
I agree, Jim. However, I expected abortion to be an issue.
Jim, Donald Trump may be the only person out there that can withstand the Democrat’s dirty tricks, which will be sure to arise with George Soros’ and his ilk’s financial backing — No matter what one thinks about Trump on personal level, he clearly has the best interests of the Country from a policy standpoint — evident from his accomplishments during his first term notwithstanding everything but the kitchen sink having been thrown at him — two impeachments, a hostile media, silicon valley, etc. And whatever one thought about his policy choices at the time, it is evident from Biden and friends efforts to do away with all things Trump has proven disastrous to date and sadly the worst is yet to come. All things considered, Biden and the boys –particularly with respect to foreign affairs, may have raised the question as to whether there will be a free and prosperous America by 2024 — Of course, I don’t believe that; certainly don’t wish that; but even at 79 still pause to be concerned about it — if not for Diane and me, then for our descendants.
Sorry but Biden and his clan have fubared this country so bad that it may take a generation to recover if we are lucky. Trump has the huevos, the money, and the ego to withstand the attacks that will come his way and if permitted, the right policies and principals to begin to turn the ship of state around for his successor — Pompeo, Cotton, or DeSantia in 2028. God Bless America. You to Jim Windham, all things considered we have had a pretty good ride so far!
As for Trump’s speech, I’m reminded of the viewers focused on the absence of the emperor’s new clothes. The emperor has and will do so much good, but all the viewers can focus on his absence of outward demeanor. Who is shallow?
Considering where the democrats have taken the country in two years, I fear it isn’t poor candidates, poor messaging or a combination thereof. I fear half of the voters are okay with Biden’s disastrous governance. And it seems they all reside on the east coast, west coast and large cities.
Right on Windham. Frankly, I am embarrassed by the Republican Party because they cannot seem to get Trump out of party leadership. Perhaps the people I listen to are not reflective of the masses, but they all say they will not vote for Trump, even those who voted for him twice. If he has the party nomination, we will have more liberal control. Or maybe in January 2025, he and his band of thugs will be successful in taking apart Congress. Trump did good things when in office but the election has shown his true spirit. He is not good for America – who will be a better candidate and stand up for our county?
The Republican Party needs a complete overhaul, starting with removing Ronna McDowell as its chair.