It has taken a few days to decompress and collect my thoughts on the election results, and I must admit that there really weren’t many surprises, because in hindsight this one was pretty well determined some weeks ago, particularly after the market meltdown that began in mid-September. Many of us had hoped until the end that the polling would prove flawed, but let’s give some credit there–it was remarkably accurate, particularly given the new internal polling dynamics created by the Obama phenomenon. In deference to those who just want it all to go away, I won’t make an attempt to rehash the trite and the obvious, but will rather offer a potpourri of ramblings on where we might be headed.
What Does A President Obama Mean for This Country?
First reaction–who knows? It really depends on who shows up on inauguration day. Will it be the protege of Jeremiah Wright and the colleague of Bill Ayers, the one who counts Warren Buffet and Paul Volcker as key advisors, the post-partisan healer and uniter, or the instrument of patronage for the menagerie of leftist interest groups? Or maybe it will be a composite of these. At this point, my guess is that we can be sure that it will not be a repeat of the Clinton era, because the dynamics are much different now. We are at a tipping point at which we are literally being forced into re-thinking the American idea, and the answers could take us in several directions. Folks, I am not being overly dramatic here–fasten your seat belts.
Back to the Future
A number of observers, mostly prominently Jonah Goldberg and Tony Blankley, have noted that there is nothing new in the Obama rhetoric, and they are correct. Aside from a “new” New Deal and Great Society, in this administration we will be consistently dealing with the underlying notion first articulated by the progressives of the early 20th century, led by Woodrow Wilson and surrounded by intellectuals such as Herbert Croly and John Dewey, who believed that the Constitution of the Founders was hopelessly antiquated for the needs of a democratic society. Heed the words of Barack Obama in a 2001 interview on National Public Radio: “………the {Warren} Court never ventured into the issues of redistribution of wealth and the more basic issues of political and economic justice………….It didn’t break free from the essential constraints that were placed by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution………an enormous blind spot that carries on until this day…………the fundamental flaw of this country.” We had best pray that Obama doesn’t have an opportunity to replace Roberts, Alito, Thomas, Scalia, or even Kennedy on the Supreme Court.
The Center/Right Holds
I was greatly encouraged by several developments on election day that were directly counter to the surge from the top of the ticket, primarily the rejection of same-sex marriage in California, Florida, and Arizona, and the elimination of race and gender preferences in government employment in Nebraska and Colorado. The California result was particularly gratifying in view of the fact that Obama opposes the Defense of Marriage Act and he carried the state by 24 points. These results should provide additional caution not to pursue an aggressive advancement of the culture war through the appointment of activist judges, not that I expect the hard left to heed the caution.
It was also instructive that not one Republican governor was defeated for re-election. There are some good ones in office and they will be the core leaders of the revival of the ideas that will be necessary for a Republican comeback.
From Camelot to Grant Park
There is of course the real possibility that the Democrats will overreach, with or without the full support of the President, due to the zealotry of the party’s Congressional leadership, which is far to the left of the American people and totally beholden to the various special pleaders who are the core constituency of the party. And this could turn ugly, depending on the degree to which Obama accommodates the more extreme elements of the left in his party. If he mishandles the elements that will demand immediate radical change, there will be a backlash from a body politic that remains center-right in its basic sentiments. In effect, there is the dilemma for Obama that he now presides over a governing majority that has a choice between being at odds with its base or with the nation it governs. Think of the relatively short distance from the early days in “Camelot” under Kennedy to the total meltdown of the Democratic Party in Grant Park, Chicago in the summer of 1968. Obama has been widely credited with a first rate temperament well suited for the awesome responsibilities of the office. We will soon learn whether or not this credit is misplaced.
Biden Was Right–There Will Be a Quick Challenge
Of all of George W. Bush’s potential legacies, the one that I think will ultimately have the most resiliency is the one that is anathema to Obama’s core leftist constituency–the Bush Doctrine. This is the wake up call that he is probably already receiving in the context of the daily security briefings in which he is now included. We are a nation at war. And, as such, there are various options available to a commander in chief, but in order to win this war, which must be done to maintain the security of this country, most of the options look a lot like the Bush Doctrine. He can call it what he wants, but the fact is that there has not been an attack on this country in over seven years, and I strongly suspect that this has been due primarily to the success of this doctrine and its related provisions, such as the Patriot Act. Welcome to the real world, Mr. President.
The Great Anxiety
Last month I noted that the current market crisis comes at a time when the globalization of trade and employment and the challenges to the long-held principle of comparative advantage have given rise to worldwide anxiety about employment security and the related economic security of nation-states. This is particularly true in America, which historically had always felt itself somewhat protected by two oceans and a certain sense of exceptionalism. This is much less the case now, and I believe that this is one of the reasons that Obama is now President-elect as well as one of the larger issues that needs to be addressed by both parties. But in this anxiety and the Obama response to it there is a caution, and it has to do with what Fouad Ajami of the Hoover Institution calls an underlying “sense of unease” that is manifest in the “politics of charisma” practiced by Obama, with the huge adoring crowds mesmerized by the soaring sense of expectation. This is not the American style, he says, but more the style of Arab and Muslim societies that has left them disappointed and frustrated over many years. This observation struck me as one that should give us pause–beware the earthly messiah/redeemer and promises of “salvation by society”.
Meanwhile, to the Wilderness
Shortly after John McCain was nominated by the Republicans, I suggested that he was not even close to my preference, but that the only choice then remaining was “McCain or the Wilderness”. Well, we got both. Furthermore, the Republican Party had best retire to a comfortable wilderness retreat very soon and engage in some deep soul-searching about its future. I will have more on this later, because it is worthy of much more space. Actually, the Republican Party itself is not, nor has it ever been my concern; it is important only to the extent that it serves as a successful vehicle for political conservatism. And on this point, for now it will suffice to express my scorn for those cowardly McCain staff members who have been anonymously scapegoating and undermining Gov. Sarah Palin (incidentally, without one word in her defense to date from McCain). Message to these small and petty nuisances–Sarah Palin has a future in the conservative movement; you and John McCain never really did and certainly don’t now. Please go away quietly.
Finally, above all political considerations I consider myself a patriot, and we have only one President at a time in America. So while some of us might find disappointment in many of the results of the recent election, we should immediately find pride in and be profoundly thankful for the wisdom of the system that will again allow us to perform one of the miracles of the American experiment–the peaceful and relatively seamless transition of political power in the most powerful nation on Earth. That’s pretty awesome.
Let me have your thoughts. Happy holidays, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. See you in January.
